Why Your Best Trade Might Be Your Worst Teacher
Learn why the stock market sometimes rewards bad habits, and how to protect your portfolio from the trap of outcome bias.
The Sentiment Pendulum: Why Stock Prices Rarely Stay Fair
Learn how Howard Marks' pendulum model helps you spot when a stock is priced for perfection versus priced for extinction.
The Two-Sentence Test: Finding Your Circle of Competence
Learn how to protect your portfolio by investing only in businesses whose profit engines you can explain on the back of a napkin.
Momentum vs. Mean Reversion: The Horizon is Everything
Learn how momentum dominates the short term while mean reversion rules the long term, and how to use both to your advantage.
The Inverted PE Trap: Why 'Cheap' Cyclical Stocks Can Ruin You
Learn why commodity stocks look cheapest right before they crash, and how to use the inverted PE mental model to protect your capital.
The Turnaround Arc: Why the Market is Late to Believe
Discover the predictable three-step phase of a real business turnaround and why patience is your best defense against value traps.
The 8-Point Pre-Flight Checklist Before You Buy Any Stock
Avoid emotional investing errors by running every potential trade through this simple, repeatable 8-point checklist.
The 'And Then What?' Test: Master Second-Order Thinking
Learn why buying great news can lead to poor returns, and how to look past the consensus to find true stock market value.
The Graveyard Bias: Why 'Buy and Hold' Backtests Lie
Learn how index churn and forgotten companies create a false illusion of guaranteed stock market wealth.
Why High Profits Fade (And the 5 Moats That Protect Them)
Learn the five types of competitive advantages that protect a company's profits from rivals, and how to spot when they are shrinking.
How to Spot a Value Trap Before It Snaps
Learn how to distinguish a temporarily cheap cyclical stock from a permanently dying business.
The Anatomy of Every Bubble Ever
Learn the classic Minsky phases of a market bubble and how to calculate if a stock's price is driven by real earnings or pure hype.